Covered in the current issue

Dodging politics
OCHA finalises Early Recovery Strategy and Trust Fund

After multiple delays, on 23 October OCHA announced to the Security Council the finalisation of its Early Recovery Strategy (2024-28) and the accompanying Early Recovery Trust Fund (ERTF.) Since the start of their development in June 2023, both the Strategy and ERTF — a key mechanism for implementing the Strategy — have been a political flashpoint. Large segments of Syrian society are calling for rigorous political risk analysis and safeguards, while OCHA insists on the “humanitarian character” of Early Recovery and that it  must remain unpoliticised. 

This approach is unique to the UN Country Team in Syria. In September this year the Palestinian Territories UN Country Team published its Early Recovery Approach and Action Plan for Gaza, and politics was at its forefront. The document clearly states that “any viable early recovery must be firmly rooted in a broader political and security framework” that seeks to “re-establish a political horizon” and must be “designed and implemented with the objective of contributing to a political process.” | continue reading

Man without a mission
EU plans to appoint Syria Envoy stir speculation

The European Commission’s plan to appoint a Syria Envoy has stirred speculation and potential misunderstandings. The proposal emerged in response to a July initiative led by Italy that called for reassessing the EU’s Syria strategy, higher-level diplomatic engagement with the Assad regime, expanded early recovery assistance, and sanctions relief — though without providing political risk analysis or detailing conditions. It soon became clear that the initiative would not alter European foreign policy significantly. Amid heightened domestic pressure over migration — which, concerningly, is being conflated with the issue of refugees — the move to appoint an envoy can be seen primarily as being motivated by internal PR.

However, better coordination of EU positions, particularly after the schism that was led by Italy, would certainly be welcome. Syria in Transition has meanwhile learned from diplomatic sources that the envoy won’t be based in Damascus. | continue reading

Safe zone reloaded
Turkish plans would see Aleppo city encircled

Since Turkey’s last ground incursion into Syria in 2019 the threat of additional operations has become a major tool in Ankara’s policy kit. Recently, there’s been talk of a sweeping operation that could reset the strategic balance of power in Syria. With Trump’s election win, the conditions for such a step may now be more favourable.

Sources in Ankara say that Turkey is looking to cooperate with the US to establish an expansive “safe zone” spanning much of Syria’s north and east. The zone would ring Syria’s borders with Turkey and Iraq, stretching from the town of Al-Busayra in Deir Ezzor governorate, up the Khabour River to Al Hassakeh, then west along the M4 Highway to Manbij and Maskana and on to Ma’arat Misrin in Idlib governorate. “If you draw a straight line from Maskana to Ma’arat Misrin, you’ll understand the size of this safe zone,” one source explained. 

Importantly, it would include the city of Aleppo, although Turkey may not attempt to storm it, instead gaining control by securing key highways into the city. | continue reading

From Belfast to Damascus
What Syrians can learn from the Northern Ireland peace process

At first glance Syria and Northern Ireland seem distant in culture, politics, and history. Yet, a deeper look reveals shared experiences – primarily the drive for self-determination and the challenges posed by deeply rooted sectarian divides. In both the now (largely) resolved Northern Irish conflict and the continuing strife in Syria political issues have intertwined with societal and religious dynamics that added multiple layers of complexity to the peace process in Northern Ireland, and could well do the same in any peaceful resolution in Syria. | continue reading

Order out of chaos
A conversation with Abdulrahman Mustafa

Opposition areas in Syria fall under one of two jurisdictions: the Syrian Opposition Coalition’s Syrian Interim Government (SIG) that is based in Azaz, and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’ Syrian Salvation Government (SSG) that is based in Idlib. To understand more about the challenges of governing northern Syria, and what plans exist to overcome them, Syria in Transition spoke with Abdulrahman Mustafa, Prime Minister of the Syrian Interim Government. | continue reading

The Peacemakers
Hotel Lobby

The Peacemakers is a satirical novel by Malik al-Abdeh and Lars Hauch about a fictional peace NGO founded by ex-UN diplomat Gerald Baynes. With grand plans before he retires and writes his memoirs, Gerald takes on an assignment that changes the trajectory of the Syria conflict. Any similarities to real persons or events are, of course, purely coincidental. | continue reading