Covered in the current issue

The new Umayyads
Syria’s leader is turning nostalgia into strategy

Almost everyone who knows Syria’s transitional president, Ahmad Sharaa, agrees on one point: he has long been obsessed by the notion of creating a Sunni entity (kayan sunni). 

This notion is not new. In Iraq Sunnis have long called for such an entity in the form of a federal region as a way of escaping the grip of the Shia-led government in Baghdad. Sharaa appropriated this concept while in Idlib, stating in a televised meeting with Salvation Government ministers in July 2022 that the goal of the revolution was no longer just to end tyranny and oppression but “to create a Sunni entity.” Unlike Iraq, Syria has a clear Sunni majority, and, in light of perceived historic oppression of Sunnis by the Alawite-dominated Assad regimes, Sharaa’s obsession with turning Syria into a bastion of Sunni power is not without popular support. 

While official talk of the kayan sunni remains muted due to its politically charged connotations, a more palatable alternative has been offered to the Syrian public: “Umayyadism.” | continue reading

The sanctions illusion
How a flawed discourse can be fixed

Since Bashar Assad’s fall last December, think tanks and other advocacy groups have echoed the same catch-22 mantra on sanctions: the West maintains them as leverage to push transitional President Ahmad Sharaa toward a liberal transition, yet those same sanctions hinder economic recovery, preventing meaningful progress on transition. In other words, Assad’s ouster created a brief window of opportunity, but continued economic strangulation risks shutting that window before any real transition can take hold. This narrative, however, deflects from the deeper realities of Syria’s ongoing conflict and risks obstructing the kind of comprehensive political process the country truly needs.| continue reading

Made in Tel Aviv
Trump’s Syria playbook isn’t American

Since the earliest days of the Syrian conflict, the guiding principles of US policy have remained remarkably consistent across administrations – from Obama to Trump, through Biden, and now once again under Trump. None have genuinely prioritised Syria’s sovereignty, stability, or democratic transition. Instead, Washington has remained fixated on a narrow set of strategic objectives that closely mirror those of Israel: dismantling Syria’s chemical weapons program, fighting and containing ISIS, curbing Iranian and Hezbollah influence, locating missing US nationals, and paying lip service to the protection of minorities.

Sources who spoke to Syria in Transition on condition of anonymity say that Trump told Netanyahu that he could take “as much Syrian territory as he wanted,” a statement that underscores how thoroughly US diplomacy has been absorbed into the maximalist objectives of Israel’s current leadership. | continue reading

Damascus re-born
The Syrian capital is embracing its newfound identify

When Abu Alaa, a prominent Damascene businessman, urged his opposition friends to accept reality – “The regime has won; just come back home and let's get the sanctions lifted” – few anticipated the dramatic reversal about to unfold. Indeed, the initial news of opposition forces advancing on Aleppo late last November barely registered on local WhatsApp chats.

Abu Ahmed, a cautious Damascene textile trader, quickly brushed aside the news: “Just another Turkish manoeuvre to squeeze concessions from Russia, followed by the usual retreat and losses.”

Yet when opposition forces did seize Aleppo, locals' anxieties persisted. "These aren't statesmen," grumbled another businessman, "just Islamists soon to fight each other, as always." | continue reading

The Peacemakers
The Situation Room

In this month’s instalment of The Peacemakers, SiT’s satirical novel, tensions rise as the humanitarian convoy brokered by Gerald makes its push into regime-held West Aleppo — only to be halted by the sudden appearance of the Knights of Sharia. Back in Geneva, Pieter has transformed the Peacemakers office into a makeshift Situation Room. As the mission unfolds, whispers grow louder: is this convoy truly humanitarian — or is something murkier lurking beneath the aid boxes?| continue reading