Covered in the current issue

The Necessary Leader
He may not be ideal, but he can deliver

When Syria’s transitional president Ahmad al-Sharaa stepped out of his palace for an evening meal in an upscale district of Damascus last month, he was met not with staged applause but with something rarer: a spontaneous crowd chanting for his good health. The scene was raw and unscripted. For many Syrians, Sharaa is no longer merely a political figure but a symbol of deliverance: the man who ended the war with a minimum of blood and restored a semblance of order. That this outpouring of affection was directed at a former jihadist commander would have once seemed unimaginable. Yet in a country battered by dictatorship, insurgency, and collapse, it speaks to a deeper truth: despite – or perhaps because of – his past, has become the only figure capable of holding the fractured nation together. 

In an ideal Syria, shaped by democratic revolution and visionary politics, such a man would not be necessary. Syria, however, is not a land of ideals. | continue reading

The Transitional Justice gamble
How Ahmad al-Sharaa can dismantle Assadism for good

When transitional president Ahmed al-Sharaa signed Decree No. 20 on 17 May formally to establish the Authority, it marked the beginning of what could be a defining chapter in Syria’s post-war stabilisation and nation-building effort. The hope is that the Authority becomes more than a symbolic body and instead helps Syrians confront the wreckage of the past decades, rebuild trust, and lay the groundwork for a new kind of social and political culture. 

Here, Sharaa has a rare opportunity. He has spoken publicly about personal change over the course of the war, and about the importance of accountability. If he is serious about those principles, then the coming months are the time to demonstrate it. A leader who acknowledges his own past — including the violence committed by groups he once led — and who asks forgiveness would be unprecedented in Syrian political life. | continue reading

Terrorism reawakened
Islamic State is a growing (and useful) threat

In the aftermath of the Syrian regime’s collapse, one force has quietly regrouped across the fractured country: Islamic State (IS). It initially capitalised on the abandonment of government armouries and Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) depots to seize vast amounts of weapons, ammunition, and vehicles. Its fighters fanned out from the desert hinterlands into poor districts in Damascus, Homs, Aleppo, and Deir Ezzor. Yet unlike its brutal blitzkriegs of old, this return was marked by discretion. There were no early assaults or provocations. Instead, IS sought sanctuary and quiet entrenchmant. 

Crucially, IS has adapted its urban strategy. Instead of attempting to seize and hold territory – a method that previously triggered international backlash – it now embeds sleeper cells within densely populated, mixed communities in cities like Aleppo and Damascus, allowing its fighters to blend in and remain undetected. Direct confrontation with the new Syrian state is being deliberately deferred to give IS time to rebuild its strength, expand its ranks, and – significantly – pursue infiltration of HTS, potentially even positioning itself to eliminate senior HTS figures. | continue reading

Asylum limbo
Europe’s approach to Syrian asylum seekers enters a new phase

The limbo into which tens of thousands of Syrian asylum-seekers in Europe were placed after most governments suspended consideration of their applications after the Assad regime’s downfall could soon end, although many hoping for a stable residence status in the EU might not like the direction things are heading.

The initial freeze in processing applications was meant to allow time for reassessing conditions in Syria. Europe’s widespread freezing of asylum applications sits uncomfortably with key elements of the 1951 Refugee Convention and international law. Both the Convention and the EU’s Directive 2013/32/EU require protection claims to be assessed fairly and individually on the basis of their individual merits. But six months on, many applicants are growing impatient. And in some cases, national courts are forcing the issue. | continue reading

French recalibration
A conversation with Jean-Baptiste Faivre

As a leading proponent of the European strategy of “strategic patience” that defined Europe’s approach to Syria throughout the Assad era, France is now recalibrating its policy. With the lifting of sanctions and the onset of political normalisation, traditional levers of influence have weakened, and the focus has shifted toward good-faith engagement. The challenges are considerable — among them, achieving a negotiated settlement between Damascus and the AANES, with which France maintains good relations.

To better understand France’s evolving role in Syria, Syria in Transition spoke with Jean-Baptiste Faivre, Chargé d’affaires at the French Embassy in Damascus. | continue reading

A view from Ankara
A conversation with Erdem Ozan

In the wake of Assad’s fall, Turkey has emerged as the leading regional actor in Syria. As it seeks to maintain influence it must contend with a transitional government in Damascus keen to assert sovereignty and independence. Questions linger over Ankara’s continued support for armed factions, its stance toward Kurdish autonomy, and its long-term strategic vision for a country that, according to President Trump, it had “conquered.”  

To answer these questions, Syria in Transition spoke with Erdem Ozan, a recently retired Turkish diplomat of 27 years’ experience. He served as Ambassador to Jordan, and held postings in the UAE, Austria, France, and Nigeria. Between 2012 and 2024, he worked on Middle East affairs with a particular focus on Syria. | continue reading

The Peacemakers
No man’s land

For Gerald, the plan was simple: cross the border, deliver the aid, come back alive, and be lauded as the hero. But in Syria, simple plans die fast. In no man’s land survival hangs on the barrel of a gun.| continue reading