Message to our readers
With Bashar Assad’s regime now toppled, the title of our publication has never been more fitting. When we launched Syria in Transition in June 2023 our goal was to provide quality information and analysis to seasoned experts as well as professionals grappling with the complexity of the Syrian conflict. Recognising that many in this field are new to their roles and often overwhelmed by acronyms, we sought to offer clarity and insight.

A key focus of our work has been to examine critically the assumptions that have shaped Syria policy in recent years. Perhaps the most striking was the widespread belief that Assad had “won” the war. This narrative, coupled with a retreat from principled positions under the guise of avoiding past interventionist mistakes, led to policies by governments and international organisations that ultimately harmed Syrian civilians and destabilised the region. It created a fertile ground for misguided normalisation efforts, and propped up a mafia regime whose pretensions to state legitimacy were always illusory.

Syria in Transition is the product of a small but dedicated team: Malik al-Abdeh and Lars Hauch are the co-founders and lead writers. Dr Alan George serves as consulting editor. Carolin Birkners transforms the text into visually pleasing PDFs.

Operating on a pro bono basis has proven to be an asset, enabling us to maintain independence and flexibility. This model, however, naturally limits the journal’s potential. The positive feedback from our readership reinforces our belief in the value of well-sourced and critical analysis; and this will only grow more essential as Syria navigates a difficult transition to democracy.

Our consultancy, Conflict Mediation Solutions (CMS), combines practical knowledge of the diplomatic and humanitarian spaces with well-sourced conflict analysis, and in many ways Syria in Transition has evolved into our in-house think tank.

As we look to 2025, we are committed to scaling up our activities to ensure that the journal remains a trusted source for incisive reporting and actionable insights at this pivotal and exciting moment of Middle East history.

Covered in the current issue

The quasi-coup
Assad is gone but the deep state lives on

For the past 13 years Syria has endured what could best be described as an “internationalised civil war.” Winning and losing was not in the hands of local parties but their external backers whose competition over the Levant dealt the cards to the warring armies and militias on the ground. What transpired between 27 November and 8 December therefore was not only a victory by a people against a dictator, but also an “internationalised coup d’etat.” The speed of Assad’s deposition, and the apparent indifference of loyalists to his fate, suggest an understanding between local, regional, and international actors including, crucially, elements of Syria’s deep state. This could well explain certain peculiar events in Syria since Assad’s flight to Moscow, and why a legitimate, inclusive and credible transition to democracy might be harder to achieve than some might imagine. | continue reading

Correcting wrongdoings
What UNHCR needs to learn from its mistakes in Syria

Bashar Assad’s fall will prompt critical reappraisals of humanitarian and policy approaches to Syria since 2011. One such was UNHCR’s strategy of publicly distancing itself from politics while simultaneously presenting the Assad regime as a relatively benevolent actor. The aim was to secure political and financial support from donors, thereby strengthening UNHCR’s institutional standing and enabling comprehensive early recovery efforts. “They’ve been manipulating their surveys and reports to that end,” a UN source told Syria in Transition.| continue reading

The Sunnis strike back
Capture of Damascus paves way for more regional shifts

Syria comprises the four central squares on the Middle East chess board and its capture is a geopolitical triumph for Turkey. Iran continues to project significant, if weakening, influence in Iraq. As long as the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMFs) continue to exist, Syria faces the threat of destabilisation on its eastern border. Iraq is an oil-rich country run by Iran-backed elites, both Sunni and Shia, with poor services, weak governance, and eye-watering levels of corruption. It is ripe for “smart” regime change. There too the Sunnis will make a partial comeback, this time in partnership with secular and nationalist Shia politicians not tainted by twenty years of misrule.

The powers that are shaping the Middle East today have identified the agents of chaos: the PKK, the Resistance Axis, and political Islam. In the emerging order, Sunnis will be given a chance to lead; but it won’t work out well for them unless they become truly inclusive and responsible actors willing to embrace international law and multi-party political systems. If the lessons of the past twenty years are properly heeded, ex-jihadists and ex-Baathists might have a second chance. | continue reading