Issue 22 – March 2025
Welcome to Syria in Transition (SiT), a monthly delve into policy-relevant developments concerning the Syrian conflict. Crafted by practitioners with a decade-long experience in the field, SiT offers informed perspectives tailored for diplomats and decision makers. SiT goes straight to the point and shuns unnecessary verbiage – just as we would prefer as avid readers ourselves.
SiT thrives on continuous exchange with professionals. We kindly invite you to reach out with criticism, ideas, information, or just to say hello.
Covered in the current issue
No more business as usual
The problem with the UN’s Transitional Action Plan for Syria
Ahead of the 9th Brussels Conference on 17 March 2025, the UN Country Team hastily drafted a "Transitional Action Plan" (TAP) for Syria, which has yet to be officially unveiled. Syria in Transition has obtained a copy. It envisions a sweeping UN role spanning technical assistance and political guidance across nearly all aspects of state activity during the country’s transition. A UN-led and coordinated international effort to support Syria as it transitions away from war is preferable to a patchwork of bilateral tracks with a myriad of UN member states. The TAP, however, reflects a "business as usual" approach that not only overlooks recent UN failures but risks perpetuating them. | continue reading
Fit for a king
The EU should worry about Syria’s interim constitution
If the signs that Syria’s transition was heading in the wrong direction were already apparent in recent weeks, they are now set in stone. Signed by Ahmad Sharaa on 13 March 2025, the interim constitution continues the pattern of recent weeks: rhetoric that reassures those hoping for a genuine political transition and simultaneous entrenching of power in the hands of the HTS leadership.
The 53-article interim constitution, drafted by a handpicked committee, speaks of equal citizenship, freedom of expression, transitional justice, and an independent judiciary. It enshrines commitment to international human rights conventions. Absent checks and balances, however, these outwardly commendable provisions are mere smokescreens for the monopolisation of power in Ahmad Sharaa’s hands.| continue reading
Swallowing the State
HTS is fashioning Syria in its own image
After over 14 years of struggle and sacrifice, the Syrian revolution triumphed on 8 December 2024. Almost immediately, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani – now officially resuming use of his birth name, Ahmed al-Sharaa – declared the revolution over and shifted swiftly from revolutionary objectives towards consolidating control of the state. One hundred days into Sharaa’s reign, it is possible to evaluate current and future policies. | continue reading
Tanks and cash
Israel’s hearts and minds campaign in southern Syria
Israel has made in-roads into communities in the south of Syria in an attempt to win hearts and minds and cement its control there. This has not gone down well with ordinary Syrians who regard Israel’s actions as undermining of Syria’s territorial integrity and political transition. However, not everyone sees it that way. | continue reading
It’s all about implementation
A conversation with Xerîb Hiso
The future of the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES) in a post-Assad Syria is the subject of intense negotiations. While signs of alignment emerge - such as the 10 March agreement between Mazloum Abdi and Ahmad Sharaa - AANES has also made its opposition clear, notably rejecting Damascus’ 13 March constitutional declaration.
To learn more about AANES’ perspective on current dynamics, Syria in Transition spoke with Xerîb Hiso, co-chair of the Democratic Union Party (PYD). | continue reading
Protecting the space
Syria’s civil society must do more to survive
The fall of the Assad regime was a pivotal moment for civil society: Trade unions, NGOs, political parties (depending on how one defines civil society), charities, and activist associations. They strive to become key engines for the political, economic, and social reconstruction of Syria but they face formidable challenges. There is a legacy of societal mistrust resulting from decades of totalitarian rule. Even more important, however, is their uncertain relationship with the new HTS authorities. How civil society responds – and how effectively it can claim autonomy – will shape Syria’s future. | continue reading
The Peacemakers
Mojitos in Beirut
In this month’s instalment of The Peacemakers, SiT’s satirical novel, Gerald and his team set out to Beirut to charm one of Assad’s presidential advisors into cooperating with them to open the humanitarian corridor to Aleppo. However, Lisa and Pieter are not amused that they are not allowed to attend the meeting, putting Gerald’s diplomatic (and pedagogical) skills to the test. Meanwhile, Gerald and Sherin's personal and professional relationship takes an interesting turn thanks to copious amounts of alcohol. | continue reading