Damascus is misreading Israel’s motives in Syria

Israel’s conduct is driven by competing impulses – and Damascus is responding to the wrong ones

Israel’s conduct in Syria since the fall of Assad is commonly described as a “strategy,” or at least a “policy.” It is neither. It is a disorganised product of several impulses, some of them in tension with one another: the trauma of October 7th, a near-total ignorance about the group now ruling Damascus, hubris, genuine solidarity with the Druze, Netanyahu’s domestic political needs, and practices of occupation imported from the West Bank. Distinguishing between these drivers matters, because successfully handling Israeli conduct requires understanding its internal logic, and recognising which motivations are fixed and which may shift with a new government in Jerusalem.

16. August 2026