Issue 21 – February 2025
Welcome to Syria in Transition (SiT), a monthly delve into policy-relevant developments concerning the Syrian conflict. Crafted by practitioners with a decade-long experience in the field, SiT offers informed perspectives tailored for diplomats and decision makers. SiT goes straight to the point and shuns unnecessary verbiage – just as we would prefer as avid readers ourselves.
SiT thrives on continuous exchange with professionals. We kindly invite you to reach out with criticism, ideas, information, or just to say hello.
Covered in the current issue
A man for all seasons?
How Sharaa must now meet the demands of three competing powers
Sharaa’s media blitz is clearly aimed at selling himself to a number of regional and international stakeholders. Now, with the dictatorship gone, and with it the significant security and military capacity that once granted Syria its regional heavyweight status, Sharaa finds himself heading a country that resembles the Syria of 1946: weak, divided, and once again the playground of competing foreign interests. How he navigates a path forward will depend on how successful he is in meeting the bottom lines of three major players: the West, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. | continue reading
Syrian Opposition RIP
An obituary
With little fanfare and few mourners, Syria’s formal political opposition has expired. On 12 February the Istanbul-based Syrian Opposition Coalition (SOC, also known as the etilaf), the Azaz-based Syrian Interim Government (SIG), and the Syrian Negotiation Commission (SNC) headquartered in Geneva, were all dissolved by presidential decree. Even to seasoned Syria analysts, the composition and roles of these entities had long been a source of confusion. Now, they pass into history after a late-night meeting with President Ahmad Sharaa in which a large delegation from the political opposition “handed over to the Syrian state the special files entrusted to the SNC and SOC and associated institutions,” in the words of a presidential statement. | continue reading
Where Germany stands
A conversation with Stefan Schneck
For Germany the fall of Assad carries particular significance, not only due to Berlin’s role as a major donor but also because the country hosts nearly a million Syrians, the majority of whom arrived as refugees. Over 160,000 of them have recently acquired German citizenship. While Berlin has already mobilised additional funds for immediate support and is eyeing large-scale infrastructure projects, it says it is conditioning its support on an inclusive transition.
To learn more about how Germany attempts to balance zest for action and a principled political stance, Syria in Transition spoke with Stefan Schneck, the German Special Envoy for Syria. | continue reading
Waiting, waiting
Arabs from northeast Syria demand liberation from SDF rule
Between puffs of shisha and sips of tea in Damascene cafes frequented by dissidents from northeast Syria, two subjects dominate: a near-ubiquitous lack of money and how northeastern Syria will be “liberated from the PKK.” These two issues are inextricably linked for those actually from that part of the country, many of whom have relatives that joined the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) simply to be able to survive.
For the poorest, fleeing was not an option. Millions of Syrians lack sufficient food, never mind the money, for a shared taxi to a nearby town or another region. This was why so many never left both Islamic State (IS) and Assad regime areas, people note, and it is also why many remain in areas of SDF control. | continue reading
The Peacemakers
Deal or no deal
In the latest instalment of The Peacemakers, SiT’s monthly satirical novel, Gerald twists Abu Faisal's arm to get the deal that he so desperately wants. But nothing in the world of Track II diplomacy is what it seems. At moments of triumph, new dangers appear, predictably in the shape of Adil Shah and a dashing young rebel leader who threatens to upend all of Gerald's hard work. | continue reading