Manifesting refugee return
Secret regime cable shows why UNHCR is wrong

At the ministerial segment of the 8th Brussels conference on 29 May, UNHCR head Filippo Grandi delivered a statement that was well-choreographed and concerning. He affirmed that voluntary return of Syrian refugees was a legitimate right, and that most Syrian refugees wished to return. Observing that some obstacles to return were related to security fears, while others were of a material and economic nature, he then declared that it was the Assad regime’s responsibility to address safety concerns, and that hopefully everyone had noted the “important policy statements” made by the regime at the UNHCR Executive Committee meeting in October 2023. Grandi also suggested that the regime had taken concrete steps to “respond to the security of returnees, address legal challenges and allow UNHCR to monitor repatriation, including through increased presence at the border and in returnee areas.“ He then urged donors to fund early recovery in return areas to make them sustainable, and concluded with a well-aimed shot at Europe’s Achilles’ heel: “Remember, please, 2015.”

Grandi could have pointed to ongoing mass crimes against humanity committed by the Assad regime, as highlighted by a February 2024 OHCHR report stating that Syrians faced “gross human rights violations and abuses upon their return to Syria.” This is why surveys such as that conducted by Immigration Policy Lab (IPL), a specialist think tank, confirm that higher levels of regime control in people’s towns or cities of origin correlate with a decrease in Syrians’ intention to return. Instead, Grandi chose to suggest that the Assad regime was constructively engaging on protection issues, and he placed responsibility for addressing Syria’s dire economic situation on donor states. A useful indicator of the extent of the regime’s commitment to guaranteed “basic rights, freedom and dignity” for all Syrians – which it loudly asserted at the said UNHCR Executive Committee meeting – is the file of over 135,000 detainees and missing persons. Disclosing their fates would be a tangible indicator that the regime was serious about incentivising refugee return by making structural changes to the security environment.

Syria in Transition has obtained a top secret circular from Military Intelligence that demonstrates the level of control the regime exerts over the file of detainees and missing persons. It is dated 17 September 2022, and it was sent to all Military Intelligence departments by Branch 248 – notorious for mass detentions and torture. It states that, following directives from the National Security Bureau (NSB) – the office in the President’s office that coordinates security matters – all Military Intelligence officers must ensure that the Military Public Prosecutor, Attorney General, Terrorism Court, and Military Police do not disclose information about detainees – alive or dead – to civilian judicial and police bodies, except with explicit authorisation from the head of Military Intelligence. At the time, that was Gen. Kifah Moulhem. 

The NSB coordinates the four main intelligence agencies (Military Intelligence, Air Force Intelligence, Political Security, and State Security), and reports directly to Bashar Assad. The current head of the NSB is none other than Gen. Moulhem, who succeeded Ali Mamlouk to the highest security post in January 2024. It is estimated that more than 300,000 Syrians were detained in 2011-2013 alone.

The circular proves that Assad maintains centralised control over the detainees and missing persons file, and deliberately prolongs the suffering of many thousands of families by continuing to withhold information about their relatives on the flimsy grounds of “ensuring the smooth progress of security work.” The Assad regime has rejected any dialogue on the fate of the detainees and missing. Unilateral amnesties announced in the 2011-2022 period involved the release of less than six percent of detainees, according to the Syrian Network for Human Rights. Some of those released were forced publicly to thank Assad for his benevolence, while others were rearrested shortly after. The Independent Institution on Missing Persons (IIMP), established by a UN General Assembly resolution in 2023, is an important step but its mandate is limited and has only the weak leverage the international community gives it.

Against that background, Grandi’s suggestion of constructive engagement and progress on security and legal matters sends a dangerous signal. Syrians will not be deceived by sham moves designed to influence UNHCR and the politico-humanitarian discourse on Syria. The likely effect will be increased pressure on refugees in host countries and an increase in illegal deportations. This will mean that more Syrian asylum seekers will travel to Europe, not fewer. Those wanting more refugee returns and greater resilience on the part of in-country Syrians should put Assad’s words about detainees and the missing to the test. The top secret circular seen by Syria in Transition is proof that he is able but unwilling to deliver.