Syria’s anti-ISIS gamble threatens internal stability

Syria’s decision to join the international coalition against ISIS offers a clear chance to re-emerge on the global stage. It could help the new leadership secure long-sought international legitimacy, break years of isolation and lift economic sanctions. But that same step risks unsettling the country from within and undermining the authority of a leadership that earned its standing by leading a broad alliance of military forces that ended decades of Assad family rule.

The danger goes well beyond short-term security flare-ups with ISIS. The move strikes at the heart of Syria’s internal power structure, especially that of Syria's ruling party: Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).

Despite announcing at the Victory Conference on 29 January 2025 that it had dismantled its jihadist apparatus and blended into the new state, HTS remains very much intact beneath the surface, operating as a governing elite. It retains broad security capabilities, significant military leverage and strong loyalty networks rooted in its ideological and behavioural past.

That makes Damascus’s involvement in the US-led coalition – formal or otherwise – fundamentally at odds with HTS’s origins. As a product of the transnational jihadist movement, HTS was built on a core belief: to fight local regimes and international coalitions, not work alongside them.

This clash of principles risks splitting the group. One segment, driven by rigid doctrines, is likely to see any cooperation with the West as abominable. Another, more pragmatic, may argue that adapting to regional and international realities is the only way to retain power.

These tensions could develop into an internal crisis. Leadership changes, underground conflict or even the defection of hardliners to more radical groups – possibly outside Syria – are all real possibilities.

Nor is the risk confined to HTS. Other jihadist factions, particularly those ideologically closer to ISIS or al-Qaeda – including foreign fighter groups known as muhajirun – may also turn hostile. Early signs emerged during the recent standoff in Idlib with French fighters, just before President Ahmad al-Sharaa departed for Washington.

Discontent is also growing among segments of Islamist youth, who view the state’s rapid engagement with the West – and its approach to redefining relations with Israel beyond the 1974 ceasefire agreement – as alarming. With no credible political or ideological alternative, and rising cost of living, many may drift towards more radical thinking.

Some religious and political actors close to the ruling circle are said to be crafting a new narrative to justify participation in the anti-ISIS coalition. And the absorption of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) into the national army may provide short-term security leverage against the extremists. Yet neither step tackles the deeper challenge: maintaining the new government’s legitimacy and stability given the ongoing tension between extremist and pragmatic wings.

The fragility of the government makes a new strategy crucial. The leadership must move beyond relying solely on security measures and pursue genuine national consensus. That means real engagement with society, not token gestures. It requires space for political and intellectual movements that support pluralism and a broad-based national identity, and that may offer practical answers to the questions of transitional justice, economic development, and political freedoms - especially to younger Syrians keen on playing an active role in Syria’s transition.

If properly mandated and respected by the executive, Syria’s new People’s Assembly (parliament) could be the right forum that helps balance three requirements: national security needs, the need to offer prospects to a new generation of state-builders, and the demands of the international community. Crucially, it could be used to push back against undue foreign influence and dictats that do not serve Syria’s interests during the transitional phase. 

Joining the anti-ISIS coalition may unlock the door to international legitimacy, but its requirements risk weakening Syria’s political and security cohesion. An empowered legislature could be the answer to a balanced approach.